Revealed: the top rising assets in Europe's big five leagues
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TransferRoom Blog

Expected Transfer Value (xTV)
Revealed: the top rising assets in Europe's big five leagues
by Jack Hyom

With the 2021-22 season in Europe's top leagues having come to an end, we've dug deep into the data to see the established stars, young players and clubs who have risen the most in value and exceeded expectations in this campaign.

The xTV feature gives everyone a credible reference point, a benchmark value range for every player that allows deals to be explored and completed more quickly and efficiently.
Jonas Ankersen
Founder & CEO, TransferRoom

We have looked at the Expected Transfer Value (xTV) of every player and club across the Premier League, LaLiga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 compared with the start of the season to uncover the big biggest risers.

 

Launched by TransferRoom this season, xTV looks beyond just the player’s ability, measuring the value of the player's registration to the club they are currently playing for, under free market conditions. It is designed to capture the intersection of what price the selling club could achieve for the player AND what price a buying club should expect to be paying.

Vlahovic's stock rises quickest

 

Signed by Juventus from Serie A rivals Fiorentina in January 2022, Serbia striker Dusan Vlahovic’s projected value has gone up a staggering €65.6m, from €33.5m to €99.1m, since August.

 

The 22-year-old produced 24 goals in the league campaign, and backed up his big-money move with nine goals in all competitions for Juventus since February.

 

A young Brazilian duo rank second and third, with Vinicius Junior, 21, starring in Real Madrid’s LaLiga triumph and scoring the winner as they won the UEFA Champions League final, and Gabriel Martinelli, 20, having established himself as a regular at Arsenal.

 

AC Milan pair Rafael Leão and Sandro Tonali, both 22, complete the top five after playing pivotal roles in the club winning Serie A.

 

Biggest player value rises by xTV
Rank Player xTV at start of season xTV at end of season Increase in xTV
1

Dusan Vlahovic (Juventus)

€33.5m

€99.1m

€65.6m

2

Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid)

€39.9m

€99m

€59.1m

3

Gabriel Martinelli (Arsenal)

€18m

€60m

€42m

4

Rafael Leão (AC Milan)

€21m

€62.9m

€41.9m

5

Sandro Tonali (AC Milan)

€20.2m

€58.2m

€38m

6

Luis Díaz (Liverpool)

€18.8m

€54.7m

€35.9m

7

Jamal Musiala (Bayern Munich)

€40.8m

€76m

€35.2m

8

Ronald Araújo (Barcelona)

€23.8m

€58.7m

€34.9m

9

Ansu Fati (Barcelona)

€45m

€74.6m

€29.6m

10

Josko Gvardiol (RB Leipzig)

€23.1m

€51.5m

€28.4m

 

Leverkusen with biggest squad boost

 

The collective stock of Bayer 04 Leverkusen's 30 senior players have risen substantially in 2021-22, with an total increase €87.7m, an average of €2.9m per player, the biggest in Europe’s top leagues as they finished third in the Bundesliga.

 

Florian Wirtz and Piero Hincapié were their biggest movers, increasing by €48m xTV between them. Wirtz, 19, racked up seven goals and 10 assists from midfield while Ecuador centre-back Hincapié was integral in their defence.

 

Ligue 1 duo OGC Nice and Lille LOSC were second and third, respectively, thanks to a core group of youngsters for both teams increasing their stock and emerging as key starters. Five of Lille’s top seven players by xTV are aged 22 or under, while the top five for Nice are all 24 or younger. Their top 10 players by xTV are all aged 26 or under.

 

Under-21 trio Martinelli, Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe all made a big impact for Arsenal to inspire a squad value increase of €48.2m, while fellow Premier League club  Newcastle United strengthened significantly in the January Transfer Window and surged clear of relegation trouble to finish 11th in the league table and rank fifth in squad xTV rise.

 

Biggest squad value rises by xTV
Rank Club Total xTV at end of season Total xTV increase
1

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

€459.9m

€87.7m

2

OGC Nice

€286m

€68.1m

3

LOSC Lille

€273.7m

€58.3m

4

Arsenal

€588.6m

€48.2m

5

Newcastle United

€368.3m

€47.9m

6

SC Freiburg

€161.9m

€46.8m

7

AC Milan

€480.9m

€45m

8

1.FSV Mainz 05

€121.7m

€41.6m

9

Olympique Lyon

€364.3m

€40.1m

10

Hellas Verona

€127.6m

€34.3m

 

Empoli's exponential growth

 

A host of clubs with smaller starting squad values emerged with impressive campaigns. Serie A side FC Empoli's squad xTV jumped up by more than 50% to €111m.

 

Their collective value in August was the second-lowest in Serie A, and even though they’re up to 16th in squad xTV rank in Italy’s top flight, they still outperformed their rising value by finishing 14th in the table.

 

Bundesliga pair 1.FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg finished eighth and sixth in the league, respectively, both enjoying rises of over 40% alongside LaLiga’s Rayo Vallecano. With the fourth-lowest squad value in Spain’s top division, the promoted side Vallecano surpassed expectations with a 12th-place finish, and were in the top four halfway through the season.

 

Five Ligue 1 sides make up the top 10, suggesting the wider growth of the value of the talent in France.

 

Biggest squad xTV rises by percentage
Rank Club xTV at start of season xTV at end of season Percentage increase
1

FC Empoli

€48.9m €74.5m

52.3%

2

1.FSV Mainz 05

€100.6m €142.2m

41.4%

3

Rayo Vallecano

€36.1m €50.9m

40.9%

4

SC Freiburg

€115.1m €161.9m

40.7%

5

Hellas Verona

€93.3m €127.6m

36.7%

6

Stade Reims

€91m €121.9m

33.9%

7

RC Lens

€93.2m €123.1m

32.1%

8

OGC Nice

€217.9m €286m

31.2%

9

Clermont Foot 63

€27.4m €34.9m

27.5%

10

LOSC Lille

€215.3m €273.7m

27.1%

Union the biggest overachievers


The club with the biggest positive difference of league position compared to their squad xTV rank in their division was 1.FC Union Berlin, who pulled off a remarkable fifth-place finish in the Bundesliga in 2021-22.

 

Despite having a squad xTV of just €72.8m, less than 10% of champions Bayern Munich, they were the highest-placed team outside of Germany’s four most valuable squads; Bayern, Borussia Dortmund, Leverkusen and RB Leipzig.

 

Brighton & Hove Albion, with the Premier League’s 15th-highest squad xTV rank, and West Ham United, 12th-highest by xTV, impressed by finishing ninth and seventh, respectively, while LaLiga’s Elche CF ended in 13th position but should have finished 13th according to Expected Transfer Value.

 

Club (Squad xTV rank, league position)

  • 1.FC Union Berlin (15th > 5th)
  • Brighton & Hove Albion (15th > 9th)
  • Elche CF (19th > 13th)
  • West Ham United (12th > 7th)
  • Hellas Verona (14th > 9th)


Real Madrid inspired by young stars

 

It’s an exciting time for Real Madrid fans, having won the Champions League for the 14th time, following their LaLiga title success, and the future is just as bright, if the average rise in xTV of €15m for their young stars is anything to go by.


There are eight Under-23 players in their senior squad, led by Vinicius Junior (21, €99m), Federico Valverde (23, €72.5m), Eduardo Camavinga (19, €71m) and Rodrygo (21, €60m) - four of the five most valuable players in the Los Blancos squad.

 

Biggest value rises for U23 players
Rank Club No. of U23 players Total xTV rise Average xTV rise per player 
1 Real Madrid

8

€119.7m

€15m

2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

13

€109.4m

€8.4m

3 Arsenal

12

€93.1m

€7.8m

4 West Ham United

4

€30.3m

€7.6m

5 Aston Villa

5

€36.3m

€7.3m

6 Athletic Bilbao

8

€52.5m

€6.6m

7 FC Barcelona

14

€91.7m

€6.55m

8 LOSC Lille

12

€77.3m

€6.4m

9 Everton

8

€50.6m

€6.32m

10 Crystal Palace

6

€37.8m

€6.3m

 

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