Big names, breakout stars: Top Expected Transfer Value rises in 2022-23
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Data Insights
Big names, breakout stars: Top Expected Transfer Value rises in 2022-23
by TransferRoom

Erling Haaland boosted his Expected Transfer Value (xTV) the most, but our data shows that Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and António Silva were the season's breakout stars.

xTV is TransferRoom’s real-time, data-led measure of the player’s worth in the transfer market. It’s a powerful tool for recruitment teams at clubs of every level to assess the value of players they want to buy, to sell or to keep
TransferRoom

The evolution of a player’s Expected Transfer Value is an important indicator of their worth in their transfer market and for club decision makers and agents alike.

 

xTV is TransferRoom’s real-time, data-led measure of the player’s worth in the transfer market. It’s a powerful tool for recruitment teams at clubs of every level to assess the value of players they want to buy, to sell or to keep.

 

Q&A: Everything you need to know about Expected Transfer Value (xTV)

 

We have dug into the data from world football to find which players’ xTV increased more than any other in the 2022-23 campaign, as well as the breakout stars who had the biggest percentage rise in TransferRoom’s market value metric.

Top 10 players by xTV rise

 

Erling Haaland’s value increased by more than any other player's in 2022-23 as an incredible debut-season haul of 52 goals helped Manchester City win the Treble of UEFA Champions League, Premier League and FA Cup.

 

The Norway international had an xTV of €112.5million before kicking a ball for Man City. After smashing records and lifting trophies he is now worth €190m, an increase of €77.5m.

 

Haaland’s former Borussia Dortmund team-mate Jude Bellingham recorded the second-highest rise in xTV.

 

The England midfielder’s  xTV rose from €65.2m to €128.5m, only slightly above the €115m total package that Real Madrid later agreed to pay for him.

 

But big things were expected of Haaland and Bellingham before the season began, despite their age. The same was true of fourth-place Gavi, of Barcelona, and No 6 Jamal Musiala, of Bayern Munich, who had already made names for themselves despite their young age.

 

Napoli’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Benfica’s António Silva announced themselves to the world by helping their clubs to historic titles.

 

Kvaratskhelia and Silva were relatively unknown to most football fans.
Not anymore.

 

Kvaratskhelia arrived at Napoli last summer from Georgian club Batumi. The winger, 22, recorded 12 goals and 13 assists in 34 appearances as the club won its first Serie A title since the days of Diego Maradona. His xTV rose from €12.5m to €70.7m.

 

Silva had starred for Benfica in their UEFA Youth League triumph of 2021-22.
But an injury crisis at centre-back gave him the chance to stake a claim in the first team and he took it with both hands.

 

Despite still being a teenager, he became a key member of the team that won back the Portuguese title and reached the quarter-finals of the Champions League. 

 

His zero xTV before this season reflected the fact he had not played any first team football - by the end of it he was worth €53m.

 

So Silva recorded the greatest rise in xTV for any player who started the season with a value of less than €10m.

 

Top 10 players by xTV increase in 2022-23
Rank Player Club xTV rise xTV: June 2023
1 Erling Haaland Manchester City €77.5m €190m
2 Jude Bellingham Borussia Dortmund €63.3m €128.5m
3 Khvicha Kvaratskhelia SSC Napoli €58.2m €70.7m
4 Gavi FC Barcelona €57.9m €107m
5 António Silva SL Benfica €53.1m €53.1m
6 Jamal Musiala FC Bayern €52.4m €133m
7

Moisés Caicedo

 

Brighton & Hove Albion €51.4m €58.7m
8 Alejandro Balde FC Barcelona €49.7m €53.3m
9 Xavi Simons PSV Eindhoven €49.2m €53.5m
10 Giorgio Scalvini Atalanta BC €41.5m €51.3m

 

Top 10 rises in xTV for players worth under €10m

 

Silva tops the table of the breakout stars of the season.

 

His team-mate João Mário, in 10th place, shows that it’s not just young players who can suddenly emerge as key players.

 

Mário, 30, had never reached double figures for goals before, but hit 23 in 51 matches in the campaign of his life. His xTV rose from €7.5m to €36.3m.

 

Brighton also had the best season of their history, finishing sixth in the English top flight, so it’s no surprise to see two of their players in the top 10.

 

Moisés Caicedo went from back-up midfielder to Premier League superstar, and his xTV rose accordingly from €7.2m  to €58.6m.

 

It was only the season before, 2021-22, when the Ecuadorian was loaned to Belgian club Beerschot with the help of TransferRoom as he sought a crucial first-team opportunity, as Technical David Weir told us at a TransferRoom Summit.

 

 

Winger Kaoru Mitoma, 26, had an excellent first season in England, managing seven goals and five assists in 33 Premier League appearances and becoming a key component in Roberto De Zerbi’s attacking side. Mitoma’s xTV rise from €4.3m to €40.3m put him at No 7 in the table.

 

Both Caicedo and Mitoma previously spent time in Belgium as Brighton’s use of the loan system paid dividends again.

 

Most of the players in the top 10 are young talents.

 

Barcelona’s teenaged full-back Alejandro Balde is fourth in the list for xTV rise but has the highest percentage rise in that bracket - the increase from €3.6m to €52.7m meant his value was almost 14 times higher after his role in Barca’s La Liga title win.

 

Another left-back, Atalanta’s Giorgio Scalvini, built on his impressive end to 2021-22 by becoming a regular for his team in 2022-23. His xTV rise from €9.8m to €54.2m was the fifth highest for players who started below €10m and 10th overall.

 

Xavi Simons, the 20-year-old PSV Eindhoven midfielder, was one place ahead of Scalvini in both lists, as his value rose from €4.3m to €53.4m.

 

Top 10 players by xTV increase starting 2022-23 valued at less than €10m
Rank Player Club xTV rise xTV: June 2023
1 António Silva SL Benfica €53.1m €53.1m
2 Moisés Caicedo Brighton & Hove Albion €51.4m €58.7m
3 Alejandro Balde FC Barcelona €49.7m €53.3m
4 Xavi Simons PSV Eindhoven €49.2m €53.5m
5 Giorgio Scalvini Atalanta BC €41.5m €51.3m
6 Alejandro Garnacho Manchester United €38.1m €42.5m
7

Kaoru Mitoma

 

Brighton & Hove Albion €36m €40.3m
8 Warren Zaïre-Emery  Paris Saint-Germain €30.6m €34.3m
9 Stefan Bajcetic Liverpool FC €30.6m €35.6m
10 João Mário SL Benfica €28.8m €36.4m

 

Top 10 percentage rises in xTV

 

Most of the players in this category are young players in youth teams at big clubs.
The big exception is Quilindschy Hartman.

 

After the World Cup, Hartman became the first-choice left-back at Feyenoord as the club won its first Eredivisie title for six years.

 

The 21-year-old’s xTV rose from €471k to €17.2m meaning he was worth more than 35 times more at the end of the season  - fifth in the table.

 

In the future, perhaps young Bayern Munich defender Frans Kratzig, No 1 on the list, will become a big-name star. But Hartman is already there.

 

Top 10 players by xTV percentage increase in 2022-23
Rank Player Club Percentage rise xTV: June 2023
1 Frans Krätzig FC Bayern II 4818% €6.5m
2 Pelayo Fernández  FC Barcelona Atlètic 4241% €7.6m
3 Veljko Ilic FK TSC Backa Topola 3908% €6.3m
4 Oliwier Zych Aston Villa U21 3883% €7m
5 Quilindschy Hartman Feyenoord Rotterdam 3548% €17.2m
6 Gennaro Iaccarino Napoli Primavera 3475% €6.3m
7

Mario de Luis

Real Madrid Castilla 3390% €10m
8 Chico Vitória Guimarães SC B 3389% €5.6m
9 Hugo Álvarez Celta Vigo B 3268% €5.9m
10 Youns El Hilali Milan Primavera 3251% €5.9m

 

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